Mercury Predictions: The 12 That Will

Tomorrow is the most exciting / most boring day in the music industry calendar! It's the announcement of the Mercury Music Prize nominations, supposedly the long list of the 12 albums of the year.

Being painfully predictable, I used technology and science to try and predict who'll make the list. This is what I concluded, plus one for luck. (Well, a boy needs a margin of error from time to time)

Burial: Untrue
Ticks all the boxes: cool enough and they tend to go for innovation. Pretty much a dead cert to win from where I'm standing.

Duffy: Rockferry
Of the two white soul ladies who've been owning the chart this year, I'd say Duffy will wing it, because Adele pissed everyone off with that made-up-Brit-Award debacle.

The Last Shadow Puppets: The Age Of The Understatement
Maybe too obvious to win (this isn't the Turner Prize, after all), but this is exactly the sort of thing Mercury people like.

The Ting Tings: We Started Nothing
Nobody's pretending this is a brilliant album except, probably, the people voting here. It's a teensy cool and it's selling bucketloads.

Portishead: Third
Both brilliant and critically acclaimed. Probably won’t win though, having been there before.

MIA: Kala
Is this eligible? I think probably so. I also think it should probably win.

Estelle: Shine
Despite the embarrassment to the industry of Britain not being able to break her, they’ll still claim it as their own.

Neon Neon: Stainless Style
A curveball perhaps, but as it’s probably my favourite album of 2008 so far, I’m sticking it in.

Kate Nash: Made Of Bricks
I know, I know, but it’s just painfully obvious this one.

Radiohead: In Rainbows
Most likely there'll be a stand-off between the tastemaker types who want to reward the honesty box thing, and the industry folk who will want to do the exact opposite. Less cynically, it should just make it cos it's simply the best they've done in years.

Robert Plant and Alison Krauss: Raising Sand
Obvious token folkie nomination with the added bonus of being one everyone else has heard of. But does it count as British?

Kathryn Williams: Two
Barely know a thing about her, other than it’s another obvious one for the grown-up ticket.

Foals: Antidoes
Perfect for the hipster ticket, but probably won’t win. Well, it’s just not as good as everyone thinks, is it?